Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Key Facts:
* 3,351 of the world’s cities are located in what’s known as the ‘low elevation costal zone’ less than 10 meters above the sea level.
* A billion people - one in seven people on Earth today - could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years as the effects of climate change worsen an already serious migration crisis.
* Around one-fifth of the planet's population inhabits coastal zones which are threatened by rising sea levels and natural disasters.
* Almost two billion Asians live within 35 miles of a coast and many of them are likely to be threatened by rising sea levels.
* About 155 million people are known to be displaced now by conflict, natural disaster and development projects. This figure could be augmented by as many as 850 million, as more people are expected to be affected by water shortages, sea level crises, deteriorating pasture land, conflicts and famine.
* Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report - 2080, 1.1-3.2 billion people would be experiencing water scarcity, 200-600 million hunger and 2-7 million a year coastal flooding.
* That’s environmental researcher Alex deSherbinin of Columbia University: It’s a bit like a massive uncontrolled experiment
* Norman Myers of Oxford University has estimated climate change will increase the number of environmental refugees six-fold over the next fifty years to 150 million. The UN University's Institute for Environment and Human Security predicts that by 2010, there will be 50 million 'environmentally displaced people', most of whom will be women and children.
* At the CSIRO's Greenhouse 2009 conference in Perth, Climate Change Minister Penny Wong announced Australia would spend $20 million to help its neighbours in the Pacific and East Timor better understand how climate change would affect them, as part of a broader $150 million commitment to meet high-priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in our region.
* This is reminiscent of a recent Guardian investigation revealing that although $18 billion had been pledged globally to assist poor countries adapt to climate impacts, only $900 million had been forthcoming.
* Around 22 million people of Bangladesh would be displaced due to climatic change by 2050. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) they are ecological and environmental refugees, climate refugees, climate change migrants, and environmentally induced forced migrants though the term is objectionable.
Location Breakdown
* Central Asia
Trouble ahead. The authoritarian regimes of the region will become increasingly important because of mineral wealth. But climate change means water shortages are already being felt. Kyrgyzstan has lost 1,000 glaciers over the past 40 years, while Tajikistan's glaciers have shrunk by one third. Farming and power generation are already being hit by water shortages.
* Middle East
Water systems are already under intense stress, with around two-thirds of the Arab world dependent on water sources beyond their borders. Water supply might fall by 60% this century in Israel. Significant decreases expected to hit Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia, further destabilising the "vitally strategic region".
* South Asia
Almost two billion Asians live within 35 miles of a coast and many of them are likely to be threatened by rising sea levels. Damage to farming will make it difficult to feed rapidly swelling populations. Another billion people will be affected by a drop in meltwater from the Himalayas. These vulnerable populations will also be exposed to an increase in infectious diseases.
Taken From: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/mar/10/climatechange.eu
EU told to prepare for flood of climate change migrants, by Ian Traynor, 10th March 2008
International Organisation for Migration (IOM) Perspective:
Environmental factors have long had an impact on global migration flows, as people have historically left places with harsh or deteriorating conditions. However, the scale of such flows, both internal and cross-border, is expected to rise as a result of accelerated climate change, with unprecedented impacts on lives and livelihoods. Such migration can have positive and negative effects on both the local coping capacity and the environment in areas from which these migrants originate, as well as in their temporary or permanent destinations.
In the cross-cutting area of migration, climate change and environmental degradation, IOM addresses linkages between the environment and climate change on the one hand, and human settlement and population movement on the other from a human mobility perspective.
Migration, climate change and environmental degradation are interrelated. Just as environmental degradation and disasters can cause migration, movement of people can also entail significant effects on surrounding ecosystems. This complex nexus needs to be addressed in a holistic manner, taking into account other possible mediating factors including, inter alia, human security, human and economic development, trade, livelihood strategies and conflict. Migration often seems to be misperceived as a failure to adapt to a changing environment. Instead, migration can also be an adaptation strategy to climate and environmental change and is an essential component of the socio-environmental interactions that needs to be managed. Migration can be a coping mechanism and survival strategy for those who move. At the same time, migration, and mass migration in particular, can also have significant environmental repercussions for areas of origin, areas of destination, and the migratory routes in between and contribute to further environmental degradation.
Migration and Climate Change, International Organization for Migration, 2008.
The available science, summarized in the latest assessment report of the IPCC, translates into a simple fact; on current predictions the “carrying capacity” of large parts of the world will be compromised by climate change. The meteorological impact of climate change can be divided into two distinct drivers of migration; climate processes such as sea-level rise, salinization of agricultural land, desertification and growing water scarcity, and climate events such as flooding, storms and glacial lake outburst floods. But non-climate drivers, such as government policy, population growth and community-level resilience to natural disaster, are also important. All contribute to the degree of vulnerability people experience.
The problem is one of time (the speed of change) and scale (the number of people it will affect). But the simplistic image of a coastal farmer being forced to pack up and move to a rich country is not typical. On the contrary, as is already the case with political refugees, it is likely that the burden of providing for climate migrants will be borne by the poorest countries—those least responsible for emissions of greenhouse gases. Temporary migration as an adaptive response to climate stress is already apparent in many areas. But the picture is nuanced; the ability to migrate is a function of mobility and resources (both financial and social). In other words, the people most vulnerable to climate change are not necessarily the ones most likely to migrate.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) : -
In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted that the greatest single impact of climate change could be on human migration, with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion, coastal flooding and agricultural disruption. Since then, various analysts have tried to put numbers on these flows of climate migrants—the most widely repeated prediction being 200 million by 2050. One study published by the International Organisation for Migration's Migration Research Series (no.31) and developed from a thematic paper originally written for the 2007/2008 Human Development Report of the UNDP. The study points out the scientific basis for climate change is increasingly well established, and confirms current predictions as to the `carrying capacity' in large parts of the world will be compromised by climate change. But although it is defined as a growing crisis, the consequences of climate change for human population are unclear and unpredictable.
V.O. Kolmannskog. Norwegian Refugee Council, 2008
With the certainty of global warming, the term ‘climate refugees’ is gaining popularity in public discourse. The term climate refugees implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. This report considers the different factors that force migration and how climate change has impacted on these issues. The author highlights how forced migration can be triggered by environmental conflicts over already scares resources of water and land.
The report highlights how governance and the role of the state are often crucial factors. In fact, cooperation rather than conflict may be the response to some environmental challenges. Resorting to quick-fix solutions of new laws and policies often fulfills an action function, the need to be seen to act, but closer consideration of the existing prevention and protection possibilities may prove helpful before new measures are enacted.
The author argues that existing law and protection possibilities should be further investigated to identify and address potential protection gaps. An approach similar to the one taken with regard to IDPs, with the creation of the Guiding Principles, could be considered. The root causes of climate migration must also be addressed adaptation to climate change in developing countries must be made a top priority along with mitigation. Alongside more typical information and infrastructure measures, addressing general factors of forced migration and conflict can contribute to vulnerability reduction and adaptation. Additional recommendations include:
• many of the forced migrants may be included in already existing categories of protected persons, but they may need to be made more visible and recognised within the categories
• for the internally displaced persons in general there is still a severe protection deficit that must be better addressed
• when it comes to the island states that risk becoming submerged, some sort of regulation or agreement on a regional or international level should be considered
• financial resources must also be made available for countries to deal with problems of climate change-related displacement.
Climate Change and Displacement, Forced Migration Review, Special Issue, October 2008.
In response to growing pressures on landscapes and livelihoods, people are moving, communities are adapting. This issue of FMR debates the numbers, the definitions and the modalities – and the tension between the need for research and the need to act. Thirty-eight articles by UN, academic, international and local actors explore the extent of the potential displacement crisis, community adaptation and coping strategies, and the search for solutions.
Internal Displacement, Human Rights, and Development, Elizabeth Ferris, Brookings-Bern Project On Internal Displacement, 18-19 August 2008.
Here the author argues that in order to understand global migration, we need much more emphasis on the movements of people within their national borders. There are about 200 million international migrants worldwide – and 200 million internal migrants in China alone! There is a similar disparity in looking at those displaced by conflict. There are an estimated 11.4 million refugees in the world while 26 million people are internally displaced by conflict, not including those displaced by natural disasters and development projects who are estimated to be a far larger number. I want to stress the importance of looking at migration and displacement through a human rights lens.
Conflicts fuelled by climate change causing new refugee crisis, warns UN, Julian Borger, The Guardian, 17 June 2008.
Climate change is fuelling conflicts around the world and helping to drive the number of people forced out of their homes to new highs, the head of the UN's refugee agency said yesterday. After a few years of improvement, thanks mainly to large-scale resettlement in Afghanistan, the numbers of civilians uprooted by conflict is again rising. During 2007 the total jumped to 37.4 million, an increase of more than 3 million, according to statistics published today. The figures, described as "unprecedented" by the UN, do not include people escaping natural disasters or poverty - only those fleeing conflict and persecution. But Antonio Guterres, the UN high commissioner for refugees, said that climate change could also uproot people by provoking conflicts over increasingly scarce resources, such as water.
In an interview with the Guardian, Guterres said: "Climate change is today one of the main drivers of forced displacement, both directly through impact on environment - not allowing people to live any more in the areas where they were traditionally living - and as a trigger of extreme poverty and conflict."
As climate change, a global economic slowdown, conflict and persecution fuelled each other, it would be increasingly hard to categorise those on the run.
"What we are witnessing is a trend in the world where more and more people feel threatened by conflict, threatened by their own government, threatened by other political, religious ethnic or social groups, threatened by nature and nature's retaliation against human aggression - climate change is the example of that. And also threatened by ... a slowdown in global growth, plus structural change in energy and food markets," Guterres said.
Future floods of refugees, Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog, Norwegian Refugee Council, April 2008.
From a forced migration perspective, the term is flawed for several reasons. The term “climate refugees” implies a mono-causality that one rarely finds in human reality. No one factor, event or process, inevitably results in forced migration or conflict. It is very likely that climate change impacts will contribute to an increase in forced migration. Because one cannot completely isolate climate change as a cause however, it is difficult, if not impossible, to stipulate any numbers.
It is likely that developing countries in lower latitudes will continue in the near future to be the hotspots in several senses of the word. Faced with climate change, there may be some increase in planned migration that is longer-distance, longer-term and more permanent. Increased urbanisation with the possibility of secondary migration can also be expected. But most of the forced migration and conflict related to climate change, is likely to remain internal and regional. While the developed countries bear the main responsibility for climate change, one could question whether the dynamics of climate change, conflict and forced migration can and should be portrayed as a threat image of masses of refugees flooding over western borders. The sad truth is that there will be real floods, and if nothing changes, many of the affected will have little choice but to return and risk further flooding.
From a legal point of view the term climate refugees is also inaccurate. Resorting to quick-fix solutions of new laws and policies often fulfils an action function, the need to be seen to act, but closer consideration of the existing prevention and protection possibilities may prove helpful before new measures are enacted.
Making Sense of Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Displacement: A Work in Progress, Elizabeth Ferris, Brookings-Bern Project On Internal Displacement, Calcutta Research Group Winter Course, December 2007.
It seems fairly certain that climate change has the potential to displace more people by increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters, particularly hydrometeorological events. It is also likely that most of those displaced by these types of events will remain within their country’s borders.
If we are to demonstrate a causal connection between environmental change and displacement, we need to demonstrate that migration increases when environmental degradation gets worse and those studies simply don’t exist.
The relationship between climate change and slow-onset disasters is more complex and further work is needed to explore the relationship between poverty, climate change, and displacement.
Preparing for a warmer world: Towards a global governance system to protect climate refugees, Frank Bierman and Ingrid Boas, Global Governance Working Paper No 33, November 2007.
We outline a blueprint for a global governance architecture for the protection and voluntary resettlement of climate refugees. .. Key elements of our proposal are a new legal instrument specifically tailored to the needs of climate refugees.
Climate Change and Forced Displacements: Towards a Global Environmental Responsibility? The Case of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the South Pacific Ocean, François Gemenne, Les Cahiers du CEDEM, Université de Liège, January 2006.
Using the case of Tuvalu as a starting point, this paper tries to imagine which means of international cooperation could provide a new global public good : the protection of climate change ‘refugees’
For more information please visit:
Official Website for United Nations Climate Change Conference December 7 -18 2009 http://en.cop15.dk/
Oli Brown, IOM, 2008 report ‘Migration and Climate Change’ http://www.iisd.org/publications/pub.aspx?id=954
Links to Reports
(1) V.O. Kolmannskog. Norwegian Refugee Council, 2008
http://www.eldis.org/go/display&type=Document&id=40780
International Organisation for Migration's Migration Research Series (no.31) originally written for the 2007/2008 Human Development Report of the UNDP: "Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World." Or here: www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/cache/offonce/pid/1674?entryId=17120)
Environmental Migration – Summary Analysis of the Process, Robert Stojanov, Clean Environment For All. 2nd International Conference on Environmental Concerns: Innovative Technologies and Management Options. United Nations Environment Programme, Xiamen, Čína, str. 466-475
http://www.vos.cz/imdr/documents/ENVIRONMENTAL_MIGRATION-SUMMARY_ANALYSIS_OF_THE_PROCESS.pdf
(4) International Organisation for Migration (IOM) http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/pid/2068
Experts Say Climate Change Drives Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa / Nancy Palus
Dakar / 20 March 2008
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2008-03/2008-03-20-voa33.cfm?CFID=166569354&CFTOKEN=35117017&jsessionid=66304e1e25130dc78ed651182c451ccd6c20
First wave of 'climate refugees' on the seas / James Norman
http://business.theage.com.au/business/first-wave-of-climate-refugees-on-the-seas-20090409-a1ij.html?page=2
Climate change: 22m Bangladeshis to be affected
http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/04/05/news0945.htm
Climate change to force mass migration• 1bn likely to be displaced by 2050, says report • Environmental factors will exacerbate existing crisis: John Vidal, environment editor The Guardian, Monday 14 May 2007
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/may/14/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment
